Manual gearboxes edge closer to extinction by the end of the decade

New trend analysis from UK data firm Vehicle Data Global (VDG) suggests manual gearbox cars, like diesels, could all but disappear from their new car market by 2030, driven as much by hard economics as by changing consumer preference.

VDG, which supplies technical and market data across the automotive sector, analysed millions of market data points and found the decline in manual transmissions is accelerating faster than diesel’s own well documented fall.

Manual share has halved since 2016 even among petrol and diesel buyers, meaning the shift away from manual isn’t just a side effect of the move to hybrid and EV models, where automatic is effectively the default.

The numbers are stark. Diesel has fallen 92% since 2016 and manuals now sit at just 13.7% of the UK car market. Even among buyers who still have a genuine transmission choice, manual share has dropped from 55% in 2019 to 34% in 2025.

Ben Hermer, Operations Director at VDG, said the economics of maintaining a manual transmission option are becoming harder to justify given the R&D and certification overheads involved, even with some demand remaining in the market. He said manufacturers will be weighing up whether shrinking manual programs still make sense as they manage the broader shift away from ICE vehicles.

Interestingly, the picture is very different for light commercial vehicles, where diesel still dominates and manual gearboxes held a 63% share last year, compared with fewer than one in five cars.

Trend data and figures courtesy of Vehicle Data Global, UK. Republished with permission.